Thursday, January 29, 2015

Walsh College economic predictions for 2015

Dr. John Moore of Walsh College, last week at a meeting held with the Southeastern Chapter of the Michigan Mortgage Lenders Association (MSA), outlined a very upbeat picture for our local economy. His presentation centered on some very basic economic elements that provide for the high possibility of a good 2015 for real estate.
  1. Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) throughout the U.S. is trending upward and is at the highest level since 2007.
  2. Medium Household Incomes in Michigan have regained strength and have almost equaled those of the entire U.S.
  3. Real estate associated stocks have grown at about 16% over the last three years and almost 19% in the last 12 months.
  4. Interest rates on 10-year treasuries have been in the 2-3% range keeping mortgage rates very reasonable.
  5. The U.S. savings rate to GDP has been upward trending at about 15%, making more money available for real estate purchases.
  6. The employment rate in Southeastern Michigan is growing, making buyers better able to qualify for mortgages.
  7. Residential building permits from 2012-14 have more than doubled the previous two-year period.
  8. Michigan and the Detroit MSA are cost effective places for businesses.
  9. Detroit is in the midst of a strong resurgence.
The signs are there. 2015 is shaping up to be a good year for the real estate industry in our market area.
Morris Hagerman is a local real estate agent with Real Estate One in Royal Oak, Michigan.  He serves Berkley and the other Woodward 5 communities, including Ferndale, Pleasant Ridge, Royal Oak and Huntington Woods.  Hagerman is also a member of the Berkley/Huntington Woods Area Chamber of Commerce.  You can contact him by phone at 248-854-8440, email at morrishagermanproperties@gmail.com or visit his web page.

Wednesday, January 28, 2015

13 new (and strange) rules for surviving the real estate market

After combing through a massive amount of data, Zillow has put together a compendium of housing market wisdom. Here are the most useful, or just plain entertaining, lessons.

1 Buy a house close to Starbucks
Bloomberg Bloomberg via Getty Images
While it's true that homes close to a Starbucks cost more than the national average, it's also true that they appreciate faster than the average home. Rascoff and Humphries hypothesize that this might be the result of the great work of Starbucks' 20-person location analytics team, which pores over data on traffic patterns and business density to pick the best places for their stores. If Starbucks' comes to a neighborhood, it's got a good chance of being the next up-and-coming spot.

2 Don't buy the worst house in the best neighborhood
Beth J Harpaz AP
The old saying goes, "real estate is about location, location, location." And if neighborhoods are what drive real estate prices, then following the oft-repeated advice of buying the worst house in the best neighborhood makes sense. After all, you can always fix up a house, but you can't move your house to a new neighborhood.
In fact, the folks at Zillow found that "the more affluent a neighborhood is . . . the worse that homes in its bottom 10 percent tend to perform." They hypothesize that this is because people who look for houses in expensive neighborhoods tend not to be cheap, and will overlook your house when they are shopping for a new home.

3 It's not impossible to find an affordable house in a good school district
Photograph by UIG via Getty Images
School quality can vary widely from neighborhood to neighborhood, a dynamic that is reinforced by the fact that schools are largely funded by local property taxes.
That's why home values can vary so much between neighborhoods that are otherwise very similar. But by doing a bit of homework, you can find good schools at a great value. Rascoff and Humphries give the examples of Dublin, Ohio and Greer, South Carolina as towns where you can buy affordable housing in great school districts.

4 Foreclosed homes don't offer good value
Photograph by Joe Raedle — Getty Images
Following the housing bust, the media was awash with stories of homes that could be had at rock-bottom prices. But looking at the data, Zillow found that there were good reasons why these homes were inexpensive. First of all, foreclosed homes tend to be smaller than other homes nearby, and banks often require purchasers to buy without a home inspection.


5 When selling your home, don't describe it as "unique"
Newspix Newspix via Getty Images
Analysis of online real estate listings show that the language used to describe a home for sale is incredibly important. Homes that are described thoroughly and honestly sell for higher prices than comparable homes that aren't, and Zillow was actually able to zero in on a few words that usually drive demand way down.
If you are selling, stay away from "unique." Homes that are described as such, "can sell for as much as 30 to 50 percent less than expected," Rascoff and Humphries write.

6 If you want to increase your homes value, remodel your bathroom
Photoby ABC Photo Archives/Getty Images
Investing in your home through maintenance or remodeling almost always increases its value, but some projects pay off a lot more than others. For instance, "a $3,000 mid-range bathroom model ... replacing the toilet and light fixtures, adding a double sink, and adding some wallpaper--would result in a $1.71 increase in home value for every $1.00 you spent on the renovation," Rascoff and Humphries write.
In comparison, a pricier bathroom remodeling will likely return less in home value than you spend, while basement renovations tend to do the least in terms of increasing a homes resale value.

7 When listing your home, "The Price is Right"
Photoby David Ryder — Bloomberg via Getty Images
Many people tend to shoot for the moon when selling a home. After all, if selling a home is a negotiation process, why not start high and come down from there, right? But the reality is that homes listed for close to their market value actually end up selling for 4% higher than homes that are initially overpriced.
That's because pricing a home at its fair value will attract more demand, and sometimes even start a bidding war.

8 The best time to list your home? Late March
Brian Kersey Getty Images
Most homebuyers begin contacting agents in May and June, so it's good to get your home listed in late March on average. That's enough time to make realtors aware of your listing, but not too much time that the home appears to have been langusihing by the time peak buying season begins.
However, this rule is a national average, and in colder locales like Boston, the best time to list is in early April, while places farther South call for listings a bit earlier. On average, homes listed in late March sell faster and for 2% more than comparable homes that are listed at other times.

9 Homebuyers can be really superstitious
MAURICIO DUENAS AFP/Getty Images
It's no secret that people can be really superstitious, but it might be surprising to hear that this can affect the real estate market in a big way. One example? Homes with the number 666 (the number of the beast, according to the Book of Revelations) somewhere in the listing sell for 3.2% less than expected.



10 Cool street names will cost you
UniversalImagesGroup UIG via Getty Images
If you want to live on Penny Lane or Thunder Road, it's going to cost you. Houses on streets with these names sell for 53% and 46% higher than the median home, respectively.






11 Manhattan isn't being overrun by emerging-market emigrants
George Rose — Getty Images
Many think that foreign buyers of Manhattan real estate are mostly Russian and Chinese nouveau-riche looking for a place to stash their exorbitant wealth. But Zillow's data show that "Canadians and Brits are actually the foreigners flocking in greatest numbers to New York City."



12 Homeowners don't see as much action as renters
Justin Sullivan Getty Images
Using Zillow data in conjunction with the General Social Survey, Rascoff and Humphries found that there are significant differences between the behavior of renters and owners. One fun fact: "In every age group, the percentage of renters engaging in sexual activity at least once a week is greater or equal to the percentage of owners knocking boots."


13 Homeownership isn't always the best way to climb out of the lower class
David McNew Getty Images
Homeownership has a storied history in this country, and promoting it is a bipartisan cause. But as the real estate bubble showed us, owning a home can just as easily be a financial burden as it can help build wealth.
This is especially true for lower-class people, who typically cannot afford significant down payments and tend to live in neighborhoods where home values are most volatile. Homeownership should be the result of increased wealth rather than the thing that propels a person up the socioeconomic ladder.
Published online by Fortune on January 28, 2015 and written by Chris Matthews

Morris Hagerman is a local real estate agent with Real Estate One in Royal Oak, Michigan.  He serves Berkley and the other Woodward 5 communities, including Ferndale, Pleasant Ridge, Royal Oak and Huntington Woods.  Hagerman is also a member of the Berkley/Huntington Woods Area Chamber of Commerce.  You can contact him by phone at 248-854-8440, email at morrishagermanproperties@gmail.com or visit his web page.

Tuesday, January 20, 2015

Average sale price in the Woodward 5 Communities in 2014

The average sale price of existing homes in the Woodward 5 Communities grew by an average of 11 % in 2014 over 2013.  The Woodward 5 Communities are Berkley, Ferndale, Huntington Woods, Pleasant Ridge and Royal Oak.
Ferndale posted the highest gains with 19% growth over 2013.  Huntington Woods had the slowest growth coming in at 7%.
The average size of the homes sold over the year fell by an average of about 4% in 2014 compared to 2013.  Pleasant Ridge ran opposed to the trend with an average growth in the size of homes up about 4%.  Ferndale posted the largest difference over 2013 with a drop in the average size of the home sold of 12%.  
While the growth is more modest in relation to what we have seen over the last three or four years, this growth is much healthier.  In some quarters over the last few years, the growth has been as high as 30-40%. In those high growth quarters, buyers had sensed that the market had bottomed out and housing prices were not going to fall anymore.  Influenced by an improved economy, buyers rushed to the market to get the house they wanted.  This pushed prices higher because of multiple offers for many homes.
Now, if the market could be called anything, it is more normal.  Housing prices can sustain a growth of 8-11% annually.  It will stay ahead of inflation but will not create irrational bubbles.  
The following are the details for the Woodward 5 Communities from 2013 to 2014:


Berkley
Average Sale Price
2013 $158,496
2014 $171,277
Difference Sale Price + $13,000
Percent Difference + 8%
Average Square Foot
2013 1,222
2014 1,121
Average Price/Foot
2013 $129
2014 $141


Ferndale
Average Sale Price
2013 $100,972
2014 $119,855
Difference Sale Price + $18,883
Percent Difference + 19%
Average Square Foot
2013 1,157
2014 1,139
Average Price/Foot
2013 $87
2014 $105


Huntington Woods
Average Sale Price
2013 $305,636
2014 $329,805
Difference Sale Price + $24,169
Percent Difference + 7%
Average Square Foot
2013 1,930
2014 1,891
Average Price/Foot
2013 $158
2014 $174


Pleasant Ridge
Average Sale Price
2013 $234,057
2014 $271,601
Difference Sale Price + $37,544
Percent Difference + 15%
Average Square Foot
2013 1,600
2014 1,664
Average Price/Foot
2013 $146
2014 $163


Royal Oak
Average Sale Price
2013 $187,520
2014 $207,103
Difference Sale Price + $19,583
Percent Difference + 10%
Average Square Foot
2013 1,354
2014 1,353
Average Price/Foot
2013 $138
2014 $153


Of course, there are things you should keep in mind.  This is only the raw average of all homes sold in the communities.  In some cases a few higher priced homes sold in one community can have an impact on the average sale price.  The price of any one home might be different depending on age, general condition of the home and market trends.
Price and other data were collected from RealComp Multi Listing Service.
Morris Hagerman is a local real estate agent with Real Estate One in Royal Oak, Michigan.  He serves Berkley and the other Woodward 5 communities, including Ferndale, Huntington Woods, Pleasant Ridge and Royal Oak.  Hagerman is also a member of the Berkley/Huntington Woods Area Chamber of Commerce.  You can contact him by phone at 248-854-8440, email at morrishagermanproperties@gmail.com or visit his web page.